Posted by
ATG on Friday, August 15, 2008 8:09:40 PM
www.fivethirtyeight.com tries to be objective as it can, given Nate Silver's desire for Obama to win the general election. If you're not familiar with the site, it's a great one-stop shop for polling results, projections, and (mostly liberal) commentary.
Therefore, it's worthy to note, according to 538 McCain just got nine electoral votes closer to victory in November. As many have noted prior, there are a few states to watch in particular: Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia most of all.
All have been trending McCain's way slowly but steadily over the past few weeks. Some have suggested Michigan's in play if McCain goes with Romney. Given Huckabee's continued desire to play the spoiler role for him, that seems like a risky move. McCain can win with a more conventional choice. Also, during the primaries Romney was a default choice for conservatives, not one their hearts went out to. So, he probably won't add too much to the ticket outside Michigan and, perhaps, Nevada, owing to its 7% Mormon population.
It looks like an even bet to me as to which state flips red next, Colorado or Ohio, but I'm betting on Colorado. Hillary for Obama's VP? I don't see it as Obama would have to be desperate to go with her, owing to the way in which she ran her campaign. Recent revelelations will do nothing to make her an easier choice, but some are now saying Kerry. I don't see that either, but I think that would be a big net plus for the GOP, as Kerry would do nothing to bring swing voters over to Obama's side.